TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Democratic Party
- Polymarket
Democratic Party - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:02h:02m
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?
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Intro
This market tracks which party will win the CA-11 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. On Polymarket, the Democratic Party winning is priced at 94.5%, while the Republican Party winning stands at 5.5%. The market will resolve based on official results from the Federal Election Commission following the conclusive calling of all House elections. Watch for candidate announcements and campaign developments leading up to the November 4, 2026 election date, which will determine the final outcome.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood of a particular outcome in the CA-11 House election. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets and polling averages represent different types of data. Polls capture a snapshot of voter intentions at a specific point in time, while this market reflects what traders are willing to wager on the eventual result. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, sample biases in polls, and the informational advantages held by informed traders in the market.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the CA-11 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final outcome. The market provides a way to assess the probability of different candidates winning before the official results are known.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 4, 2026. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant fundraising announcements, unexpected shifts in polling data, or impactful campaign events could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Furthermore, any unforeseen developments related to the candidates or the political landscape could also influence trading activity and shift the market’s outlook on the CA-11 House election. Changes in national political trends could also have an impact.
