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What will the CA-06 House election margin be?
Republican 0-5%
- Polymarket
Republican 0-5% - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 11h:32m:23s
Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CA-06 House election by 0%-5%?
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Description
The 2026 CA-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 CA-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome of the CA-06 House election. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will rise. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd and provides a unique signal about the potential results of the election.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official vote count reported by relevant election authorities for the CA-06 House election. The final margin of victory will be used to determine which outcome aligns with the market's predictions. This ensures that the resolution is transparent and based on objective data, reflecting the actual results of the election.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential figures, significant shifts in fundraising numbers, or unexpected developments in the campaigns of the candidates could all impact trader sentiment. Additionally, external events such as national political trends or economic news could influence perceptions of the race. Polling data releases, while already considered, could also cause adjustments if they deviate substantially from current market expectations, leading to changes in the price of shares in this market.
