TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 12d:00h:46m
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This event tracks Burger King's customer traffic performance for October 2026 using a specialized index that compares visits to the same month in the previous year. The index accounts for variables like weather and holidays to ensure an accurate year-over-year comparison. Higher values indicate increased foot traffic compared to the prior year.
All markets in this event are resolved based on the Carbon Arc Burger King Foot Traffic index for October 2026, which measures year-over-year changes in customer visits. The index, where 100 represents equal traffic to the prior year, uses mobile location data from over 200 million devices. Values are calculated by matching the same calendar days as the previous year and adjusting for seasonality, weather, and holidays. Finalized values for each market are determined at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day following the end of October 2026. Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the index exceeds specific thresholds ranging from 91 to 101, with each threshold representing a progressively stricter test of traffic growth performance.
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Burger King foot traffic. Traditional analyst reports often provide qualitative assessments and revenue projections, whereas this market asks a direct, quantifiable question about foot traffic levels. It's possible that analyst expectations are implicitly reflected in the price, but this market provides a more concrete and tradable expression of belief about the outcome. Comparing this market to publicly available polls or surveys regarding consumer confidence in fast food could also offer some context.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price reflects the highest buy order and the lowest sell order. This creates a dynamic price discovery process where the collective judgment of traders determines the probability of the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, influenced by news, data releases, and overall market sentiment regarding Burger King’s performance and the broader economic climate.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding Burger King foot traffic for the month of October 2026. The specific data source used for verification will be determined at the time of resolution, ensuring a transparent and reliable process. Traders will be able to see the final result and any supporting documentation on Kalshi.
Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major economic indicators, such as consumer spending reports and unemployment rates, could influence expectations about restaurant foot traffic. Company-specific news, like Burger King’s marketing campaigns, new menu items, or changes in franchise agreements, would also be impactful. Unexpected events, such as shifts in consumer preferences or disruptions to the food supply chain, could also cause the price to fluctuate. Any news relating to competitor performance or broader trends in the fast-food industry could also move this market.