TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 5:19 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Bulgaria and reported by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (CIK) under “Outside the country” (“Извън страната”). Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия, CIK) (e.g., https://results.cik.bg/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Bulgaria and reported by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (CIK) under “Outside the country” (“Извън страната”). Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия, CIK) (e.g., https://results.cik.bg/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders on Polymarket, and fluctuations in price indicate changing expectations about the election’s result. The market’s efficiency depends on active participation and the availability of relevant information.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission regarding the number of votes received by each candidate from Bulgarian citizens voting abroad in the second round of the presidential election. The candidate with the most votes will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final vote count.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant endorsements or unexpected policy announcements, could shift trader sentiment. Any controversies or scandals involving either candidate could also lead to price fluctuations. Additionally, shifts in public opinion, as reflected in late-stage polling data, could influence trading activity. Finally, any news related to voter turnout among Bulgarians abroad, or reports of irregularities in the voting process, could also cause the market to move.
