TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:20 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for the Bulgarian presidential election. While polls attempt to gauge stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to wager on the actual outcome. Any significant discrepancies between the two could indicate skepticism about the polls' accuracy or the potential for unforeseen events to influence the election. It's important to remember that prediction markets aggregate a diverse range of information and insights, potentially capturing factors not fully reflected in standard surveys.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous process where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate's probability of winning. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to evolving perceptions of the election's likely result, offering a real-time assessment of the political landscape.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission following the first round of the presidential election. The candidate receiving the highest number of votes, as officially declared, will be considered the winner of this market. The market's outcome will reflect the official, certified results of the election, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events impacting Bulgaria could also influence perceptions of the election's outcome. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, particularly if it deviates substantially from current expectations, could lead to price adjustments in this market. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of a candidate winning has the potential to impact trading activity.
