TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 7:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood that Iliana Yotova will win the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by a margin of at least 10%. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates an 87.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will occur based on official election results, with a Yes outcome triggered if Yotova’s margin of victory is at or above 30%. Traders should watch the official announcement of the first round election results on 2027-10-25 to see if Yotova achieves the necessary margin for resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms diverge in their focus – Polymarket considers multiple candidates and a broader range of outcomes, while Kalshi exclusively focuses on Iliana Iotova's margin of victory.Hero tip: If you believe another candidate has a strong chance of winning, focus on Polymarket. If you are confident in Iotova's performance, Kalshi provides a more direct way to express that view.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Markets cover multiple candidates (Iotova, Gyurov, and 'Another Candidate') and their respective margins of victory. Resolution is based on the absolute difference between the top two candidates’ vote percentages. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket."
- Kalshi: Markets exclusively focus on Iliana Iotova's margin of victory, with thresholds ranging from 5% to 35%. "If the margin of victory for Iliana Yotova in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is at or above X%, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
The event determines whether Iliana Yotova achieves a specified margin of victory in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. The margin is calculated as the percentage of valid votes she receives minus the percentage received by the candidate finishing immediately behind her. If Yotova wins, the margin is positive; if she loses, it is negative; and it is zero in case of a tie for first place. Each market corresponds to a specific margin threshold (5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, or 35%), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if her margin meets or exceeds that threshold. The calculation includes ballots marked 'I do not support anyone' as valid but excludes invalid ballots. Votes for Yotova under multiple parties or listings are summed. Margin ranges are inclusive of the lower bound and exclusive of the upper bound, with no rounding applied.