TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 8:55 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Polymarket for the Bulgarian presidential election reflect a different perspective than recent polling data. While polls suggest a close race between the leading candidates, this market indicates a more pronounced likelihood for a specific outcome. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the informed opinions of many traders, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in traditional polls, such as candidate momentum or hidden preferences. Discrepancies between market probabilities and polling averages can arise due to differing methodologies and the types of information each considers. This dynamic makes this market a valuable complement to conventional election analysis.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome in the Bulgarian presidential election. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket, and the 24-hour volume provides insight into the level of activity and interest in this particular event. The total volume traded to date is $13,433, indicating the degree of participation.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by the Bulgarian Central Election Commission determining the candidate who receives the third-highest number of votes in the first round of the presidential election. The market will then settle to 100% for the outcome that matches the official results, and 0% for all other outcomes. The resolution process will be transparent and based on publicly available data.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before Oct 25, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected political endorsements or scandals involving any of the candidates could also cause substantial movement. Furthermore, any shifts in public opinion as measured by updated polling data, or major geopolitical events impacting Bulgaria, could influence trading activity and change the implied probabilities within this market.
