TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$244,077,041
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,901,278,909
407,043
Markets across
39,548
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,422
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 11:20 AM EST
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).
Currently, the odds on Polymarket for this market suggest a different outlook than recent polling data. While polls indicate a close race for second place in the Bulgarian presidential election, the implied probabilities from this market show a divergence in expectations. It’s important to remember that prediction markets reflect not just who people *say* they will vote for, but who they believe will actually win, incorporating a wider range of information and potential biases. This difference could stem from factors such as perceived voter turnout, strategic voting, or information not captured in standard polls. The volume on this market is currently $46,668.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders collectively believe is the likelihood of a particular candidate securing second place in the Bulgarian presidential election. As more information becomes available and opinions shift, the prices will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the evolving situation. The 24-hour volume for this market is $24,724.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the first round of the Bulgarian presidential election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100% for the candidate who officially receives the second-highest number of votes. Any discrepancies or challenges to the official results will be considered in determining the final outcome, relying on established electoral procedures and independent verification.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in new polling data, would also likely impact the market. Unexpected political events or controversies involving any of the candidates could also cause substantial price movements. Finally, any news related to voter turnout or potential irregularities in the election process could influence trading activity.