TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$20

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 7:23 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) Up or Down on October 26?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for British Pound / US Dollar (GBP/USD) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.GBP%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the GBP/USD exchange rate being higher or lower on Oct 26, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded of $20 and the 24-hour volume of $20. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of the British Pound relative to the US Dollar. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades are placed, providing a real-time view of expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the GBP/USD exchange rate. While some analysts predict a continued strengthening of the US Dollar, this market demonstrates a more nuanced view, incorporating a wider range of potential outcomes. It’s important to note that analysts often rely on economic models and historical data, while this market aggregates the collective intelligence of traders responding to breaking news and evolving market conditions. This difference in approach can lead to varying predictions, offering a valuable alternative data point.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the GBP/USD exchange rate will be up or down on Oct 26, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a consensus view. The current price indicates the market’s collective expectation, and traders can use this information to inform their own trading strategies. The volume traded provides insight into the strength of conviction behind the prevailing price.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of the GBP/USD exchange rate on Oct 26, 2026 will be compared to the opening price on that same day. If the closing price is higher, the “Up” outcome will prevail; if it is lower, the “Down” outcome will be considered the result. The resolution will be based on widely available financial data, ensuring transparency and objectivity in determining the final result of this market.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United Kingdom and the United States, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, are likely to influence trader sentiment. Unexpected policy announcements from the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates or quantitative easing could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk appetite could also play a role, given the GBP/USD exchange rate’s sensitivity to broader market trends.