TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:06 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva winning the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by a margin of 2–4%. Currently, Polymarket assigns a 100.0% probability to this outcome. The market will resolve based on the official vote count reported by the Brazilian government’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) as found at https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/. Keep an eye on the official results following the election on October 25, 2026, as the market will resolve based on the margin of victory determined by the TSE’s reported vote totals.
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Brazil presidential election. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intention, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing more about perceived certainty and underlying beliefs. Discrepancies between the two can arise from factors like poll methodology, weighting, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic representation of expectations for the Brazil presidential election. The current market indicates a strong level of interest in the potential margin of victory.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Brazil. The final result will be determined by the official vote count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts that are definitively resolved. This ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift market sentiment. Economic data releases, particularly those related to Brazil's economic performance, could also influence predictions. Additionally, any major political scandals or controversies involving the candidates would likely cause fluctuations in the market. Unexpected shifts in polling data, or influential analyst commentary, could also move this market.
