TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 11:59 PM EST
Predict
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Predict
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture stated preferences, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* on, which can reveal underlying beliefs and expectations about the election that polls might miss. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting, voter turnout assumptions, and the inherent biases present in both polling methodologies and prediction market participation. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an overall assessment of the Brazil presidential election.
On Predict, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the margin of victory in the Brazil presidential election. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the probability that the market participants assign to a specific outcome. Higher prices suggest a greater perceived likelihood, while lower prices indicate a lower perceived likelihood. This dynamic pricing mechanism provides a real-time assessment of the election's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official margin of victory announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Brazil. The final result will be determined by the official vote count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts that may occur, as reported by trusted news sources and electoral bodies. This ensures a transparent and accurate determination of the market's outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Economic news releases, particularly those related to Brazil’s economic performance, could also influence the market. Furthermore, any major political scandals or controversies involving either candidate could lead to substantial price fluctuations. Finally, the release of new polling data, even if it differs from current averages, could prompt traders to reassess their positions in this market.
