TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:57 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intentions at a specific moment, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies between the two can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, poll weighting, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It's important to note that prediction markets aren't always perfectly aligned with polls, but they can provide a valuable signal, especially as the election nears.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a specific candidate, the price of those shares increases, reflecting a higher implied probability of success. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news, events, and the collective wisdom of the traders participating in this market. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on evolving information.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate receives the most votes in the first round of the São Paulo mayoral election. The official results released by the relevant electoral authorities will serve as the definitive source for determining the winner. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified outcome of the election.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as policy announcements or significant endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news or shifts in public opinion, as reflected in late-stage polling data, could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could introduce volatility. Finally, unexpected events or external factors impacting the political landscape in São Paulo could all contribute to movement in this market before Oct 26, 2026.
