TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:01 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Santa Catarina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Santa Catarina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intentions, this market aggregates the informed opinions of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the result. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, weighting, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including real-time events and qualitative assessments. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion on the likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate's probability of winning first place in Santa Catarina. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of the election's potential result, driven by supply and demand for shares.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate who receives the highest number of votes in Santa Catarina during the second round of the presidential election will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official vote count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts that definitively establish the final result.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the candidates' campaigns, such as significant policy announcements or endorsements, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected economic news or political scandals could also impact the perceived likelihood of each candidate's success. Furthermore, changes in polling data, even if not fully reflected in the market, could trigger trading activity and price adjustments. Any event that alters the perceived probability of either candidate winning in Santa Catarina has the potential to influence this market.
