TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:55 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Roraima. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Roraima, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Roraima. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Roraima. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect a different sentiment than recent polling averages for the Brazil presidential election. While polls suggest a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of one candidate prevailing. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game, and can incorporate information beyond traditional polls, such as on-the-ground reports and qualitative factors. The difference between market probabilities and polling data can shift as new information becomes available and influences trader behavior.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each candidate winning the most votes in Roraima. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likely result. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price can be influenced by a variety of factors, including news events, political developments, and changes in public sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazil presidential election in Roraima are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate with the highest number of votes in Roraima, as certified by the relevant electoral authorities, will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any subsequent legal challenges or recounts that are finalized by that date.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major endorsements from influential political figures, unexpected shifts in economic conditions within Roraima, or the release of new polling data could all impact trader sentiment. Any significant controversies or scandals involving either candidate would also likely cause fluctuations in the market. Furthermore, changes in voter turnout expectations or reports of irregularities in the electoral process could also influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market.
