TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:59 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for this race. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk capital on. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, biases in polling samples, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It's important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the likely outcome of the Brazil election in Rondônia.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a candidate will win, the higher the price of shares associated with that candidate will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd participating in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve to the candidate who receives the most votes in Rondônia during the second round of the Brazil Presidential Election, as officially reported by relevant electoral authorities. The resolution will be based on the official vote count, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winning candidate.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or endorsements, could shift market sentiment. Unexpected economic news or political scandals could also influence trading activity. Additionally, the release of new polling data, even if it differs from current averages, could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their predictions for the Brazil election in Rondônia. Any event that alters perceptions of the candidates' chances of success has the potential to impact this market.
