TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than traditional polling data for the Brazil presidential election in Rio Grande do Sul. Polling averages suggest a closer race, while the market indicates a stronger preference for one candidate. It’s important to remember that polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *wager* on, which can be influenced by factors beyond simple preference, such as strategic considerations or information advantages. This difference can arise due to varying methodologies and the incentives of participants in each.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific candidate, the price increases, and the implied probability of that candidate winning rises. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price and the implied probability. This dynamic process creates a constantly updating forecast of the election result.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate who receives the most votes in Rio Grande do Sul during the second round of the Brazil presidential election will be considered the winner of this market. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on incoming information and refine their predictions.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as unexpected endorsements, gaffes, or shifts in policy positions, could alter voter perceptions. Economic news releases or events impacting the Brazilian economy could also influence the market, as could any significant political scandals or controversies involving the candidates. Finally, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts current market sentiment, could trigger a re-evaluation of probabilities and a corresponding shift in trading activity.
