TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:56 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than traditional polling data. Polling averages suggest a closer race, while the odds on Polymarket indicate a stronger likelihood of one candidate winning the most votes in Rio Grande do Norte. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse range of participants, potentially incorporating factors not fully captured in polls, such as local political dynamics and expected voter turnout. This can lead to discrepancies between the two, offering a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective belief of the traders regarding the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s price, while significant price swings can signal changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine who received the most votes in Rio Grande do Norte during the second round of the Brazil presidential election. Traders should monitor news sources and official election announcements as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential developments that could impact the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Unexpected endorsements from influential political figures in Rio Grande do Norte, major shifts in economic conditions, or the release of damaging information about either candidate could all impact trader sentiment. Additionally, any changes to voter turnout expectations, particularly among key demographic groups, could also lead to price fluctuations. Monitoring news coverage, social media trends, and expert analysis will be crucial for understanding potential catalysts that could influence the market.
