TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:56 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio de Janeiro. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio de Janeiro. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market’s implied probabilities offer a different perspective than traditional polling data. Polling averages often reflect stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. This difference can be significant, especially in scenarios where voters may not accurately report their intentions or where there are concerns about poll accuracy. Discrepancies between this market and polls may indicate a level of uncertainty or hidden information not captured by surveys.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders directly set the prices for each outcome in the Rio de Janeiro presidential race by buying and selling contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of the election’s potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the election in Rio de Janeiro are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate with the most votes in Rio de Janeiro, as determined by official election authorities, will be declared the winner of this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as unexpected endorsements, gaffes, or shifts in policy positions, could alter voter perceptions. Economic news, particularly regarding Brazil’s economic performance or key industries in Rio de Janeiro, could also play a role. Additionally, any significant political events or controversies could impact the market, as traders react to new information and adjust their expectations regarding the outcome of the Rio de Janeiro presidential race.
