TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:59 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Piauí. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Piauí. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intention, this market reflects what participants believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential biases. The difference between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can be significant, especially when considering factors like turnout models and late-breaking events. It’s important to analyze both sources to gain a comprehensive understanding of the race, but this market provides a unique, incentive-driven forecast.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy shares in a candidate, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is driven by supply and demand, meaning it dynamically adjusts based on new information and changing sentiment. This creates a forward-looking assessment of the election’s potential result.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate receives the most votes in the first round of the election in Piauí. The official results released by the relevant electoral authority will serve as the definitive source for determining the winner. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final, verified results of the Piauí election.
Several factors could significantly impact this market between now and Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements or impactful debates, could shift voter sentiment and, consequently, market prices. Unexpected economic news or political scandals involving either candidate could also trigger movement. Polling data releases, while not always directly correlated, can influence trader behavior. Finally, any events that affect voter turnout—such as changes to voting regulations or widespread weather events—could also play a role in shaping the market’s outcome.
