TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:01 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pernambuco. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pernambuco. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds on Polymarket for the Brazil election in Pernambuco reflect a different perspective than recent polling data. While polls suggest a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of one candidate prevailing. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse set of participants, potentially incorporating factors not captured in traditional surveys, such as local political dynamics and fundraising data. This can lead to discrepancies between the implied probabilities in this market and those suggested by polling averages. These differences can shift as new information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome for the Brazil election in Pernambuco. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome drives up its price, indicating increased confidence among traders. The current volume of $9,237 and 24-hour volume of $705 suggest active trading and a degree of uncertainty surrounding the event.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the election in Pernambuco are verified against credible public reporting. The outcome will reflect which candidate receives the most votes in the second round of the election. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final results. It’s important to monitor news sources and official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about the progress of the election.
Several factors could influence the outcome of this market concerning the Brazil election in Pernambuco. These include last-minute endorsements, shifts in voter sentiment based on campaign events, and any unforeseen political developments. Economic conditions and local issues specific to Pernambuco are also likely to play a significant role. Furthermore, the accuracy of polling data and the effectiveness of each candidate's get-out-the-vote efforts could impact the final result. Traders in this market are constantly evaluating these factors and adjusting their positions accordingly.
