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Flavio Bolsonaro
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Flavio Bolsonaro - Polymarket
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Resolved Oct 26, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 26, 12:55 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Paraná. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of a particular outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the market’s consensus probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for shares representing a candidate, the higher the price, and the greater the implied probability of that candidate winning. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment surrounding the Paraná presidential vote.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority for the state of Paraná are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate with the highest number of valid votes in Paraná, as reported by the official source, will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any subsequent legal challenges that definitively determine the final vote tally. This ensures a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major campaign events, such as televised debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures or the release of new polling data could also cause price fluctuations. Any significant news related to the candidates, such as policy announcements or controversies, could also move the market. Finally, broader political developments within Brazil, or even international events affecting the country’s economy, could influence traders’ perceptions and impact the odds for the Paraná presidential vote.
