TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Paraíba. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Paraíba. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for this election. While polls attempt to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This can reveal underlying beliefs not always expressed in polls. Any significant divergence between the two could indicate skepticism about the polls' accuracy or the potential for unforeseen events to influence the election. It's important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have their limitations, and neither is a perfect predictor of the future.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether a candidate will win first place in Paraíba. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and opinions. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds remain responsive to changing conditions and provide a real-time assessment of the election's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate receives the most votes in the first round of the election in the state of Paraíba, as officially announced by the relevant electoral authorities. The market will then reflect the actual results, providing a clear indication of the accuracy of the prediction market's assessment. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be rewarded based on their shareholdings at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news or political scandals could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in national polling data, even if not directly related to Paraíba, could impact perceptions of the overall election dynamics. Any event that alters the perceived likelihood of a candidate winning first place has the potential to move the market.
