TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages for this election. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent, this market reflects what individuals are willing to risk financially on a particular outcome. This can sometimes lead to divergences, as market participants may have access to different information or interpret polls differently. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion, as they each provide unique insights into the potential results of the election.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate with the highest number of votes in Pará state, as reported by the official source, will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any legally valid recounts or challenges that are completed and certified by the electoral authority.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements or unexpected policy announcements, could shift voter sentiment. Any new polling data released that deviates substantially from current expectations could also influence trading activity. Additionally, unforeseen events, like a major scandal involving one of the candidates, or changes in the economic situation in Pará, could lead to substantial price movements in this market. Any news impacting voter confidence could be a catalyst.
