TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the odds reflected in this market offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls suggest a close race, the market indicates a specific level of confidence in one candidate. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent not just *who* people think will win, but *how strongly* they believe it, and what they are willing to wager on that belief. This can lead to divergences from polls, which often reflect stated preferences rather than actual expectations. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into the overall political landscape.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate’s chances. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by new information, shifts in sentiment, and strategic trading activity, offering a dynamic assessment of the race for first place in Minas Gerais.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate who receives the highest number of valid votes in Minas Gerais during the second round of the presidential election will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count and any subsequent legal challenges that are definitively resolved by the relevant authorities.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant policy announcements, unexpected endorsements, or impactful debate performances, could shift voter sentiment. Economic news, particularly related to Brazil’s economic outlook, could also play a role. Additionally, any unforeseen events or controversies involving the candidates could influence trading activity. Polling data releases will likely cause fluctuations, as will any changes in the perceived likelihood of voter turnout. These factors will all be weighed by traders on Polymarket.
