TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:57 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate’s probability of winning. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased for a particular candidate, the higher the price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, constantly adjusting to new information and changing perceptions.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate receives the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election in Mato Grosso do Sul, as officially announced by the relevant electoral authorities. The market will then settle, and shares will be redeemed based on the final result. Traders should monitor official sources for the definitive outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the candidates' campaigns, such as significant policy announcements or endorsements, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected economic news or political scandals involving either candidate would also likely cause fluctuations. Furthermore, any shifts in major polling data, even if the market has previously diverged, could influence trading activity and alter the implied probabilities. Finally, any unexpected events impacting voter turnout could also move this market.
