TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:56 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intention, this market reflects what individuals are willing to wager on the actual outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like polling methodology, biases, and the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of information, including qualitative factors and real-time news. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the election’s likely result.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy shares in a candidate, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price is driven entirely by supply and demand, meaning it’s a collective forecast of the election result based on the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate receives the most votes in Mato Grosso during the second round of the Brazil presidential election. Official results released by the relevant electoral authorities will be the determining factor. The market will then settle to 100% probability for the winning candidate and 0% for all others.
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements or gaffes by the candidates, could shift sentiment. Economic news releases, particularly those related to Brazil’s economy, might influence voter preferences. Unexpected political alliances or scandals could also play a role. Finally, any shifts in polling data, even if not fully reflected in the market, could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust their wagers, leading to price movements.
