TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:59 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Maranhão. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Maranhão, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Maranhão. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Maranhão. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. As more shares are purchased for a candidate, the price of those shares increases, reflecting growing confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazil Presidential Election Second Round in Maranhão are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate with the highest number of votes in Maranhão state, as reported by official sources, will be declared the winner of this market. Traders should monitor official announcements from electoral authorities as the resolution date approaches to understand the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant endorsements or impactful debates, could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected economic news or political scandals could also influence the market. Furthermore, any changes in polling data, even if they don't fully align with the market's current assessment, could trigger adjustments in trading activity and price movements. Keep an eye on news coverage and political analysis for potential catalysts.
