TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Goiás. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market aggregates the informed opinions of individuals with skin in the game. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, pollster biases, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including qualitative factors and real-time developments. It’s common to see this market adjust more quickly to new information than polls, offering a potentially more dynamic view of the race.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards a collective assessment of the likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price reflects the aggregated wisdom of those actively trading, and can be influenced by new information or shifts in sentiment regarding the Goiás presidential vote.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority (TSE) are released and the winner in Goiás is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect which candidate receives the most votes in Goiás during the second round of the presidential election. The resolution will be based on the official vote count as reported by the TSE, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the campaigns of the candidates, such as significant policy announcements or gaffes, could shift voter sentiment. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures in Goiás could also move the market. Additionally, any news related to potential irregularities or challenges to the election process could introduce volatility. Finally, the release of late-stage polling data, even if it contradicts earlier trends, could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust prices in this market.
