TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:54 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Federal District, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Federal District. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for the Brazil presidential election. While polls aim to capture stated voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *risk* on a particular outcome. This difference can be significant, as market prices incorporate not only predicted probabilities but also beliefs about the accuracy of polls and potential biases. The market may adjust quickly to new information, potentially reacting faster than polls, and can provide a different signal about the likely winner in the Federal District.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each candidate's likelihood of winning. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all traders on the platform, providing a dynamic assessment of the election's potential outcome in the Federal District.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate who receives the highest number of votes in the Federal District during the second round of the presidential election will be declared the winner of this market. The resolution will be based on the official count, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election progresses.
