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405,996
Markets across
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Flavio Bolsonaro
- Polymarket
Flavio Bolsonaro - Polymarket
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Vol.
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Resolved Oct 26, 2026
Latest in Politics
Closed: Oct 26, 12:58 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than recent polling data for the Brazil presidential election in Espírito Santo. While polls suggest a close race, the implied probabilities on Polymarket indicate a stronger likelihood of a particular outcome. It's important to remember that polls capture stated preferences, while this market represents what people are willing to *bet* on, which can be influenced by factors like strategic considerations and information access. This difference highlights how prediction markets can offer a unique perspective beyond traditional surveys.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the collective belief of the traders about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts for a particular candidate, the price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of the election results based on the wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official results from the electoral authority in Espírito Santo will be used to determine the winner and settle this market. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final, verified results.
Several factors could significantly shift the odds in this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements, unexpected gaffes, or shifts in policy positions, could all influence trader sentiment. Economic news related to Brazil, particularly concerning Espírito Santo, could also play a role. Finally, any changes in the political landscape, such as the emergence of a third-party contender or a major scandal, could lead to substantial movement in this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding how the predictions evolve.
