TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:58 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the implied probability of any candidate winning first place in Ceará, as reflected by this market, may differ from traditional polling averages. Polling data captures a snapshot of stated voter intention, while this market represents a weighted assessment of actual behavior, incorporating information beyond simple polls. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting methodologies, sample biases, and the ability of market participants to trade on inside information or nuanced understandings of the political landscape. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming a comprehensive view of the race.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in a particular candidate, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which candidate receives the most votes in the first round of the election for the governorship of Ceará. Official results released by the relevant electoral authorities will serve as the basis for verifying the winner. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligns with the verified results, demonstrating the power of predictive analysis.
Several key signals or events could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift voter sentiment. Changes in the economic outlook for Ceará, or national-level economic news, could also influence perceptions of each candidate's viability. Finally, any unforeseen events – scandals, debates, or major political shifts – have the potential to alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
