TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages for this election. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Discrepancies between the two can arise from various factors, including differing methodologies, biases in polling samples, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an informed opinion about the likely outcome.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in a particular outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and indicating growing confidence in the outcome. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust predictions accordingly, offering a real-time assessment of the election’s trajectory.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which candidate receives the most votes in the first round of the election in Amazonas, as officially reported by the relevant electoral authorities. The market will then determine the winning outcome based on these official results. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election progresses and resolution nears.
Several signals or events could significantly influence this market. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant endorsements or impactful debates, could shift market sentiment. Unexpected economic news or political scandals involving either candidate could also trigger price movements. Additionally, any changes in polling data or analyst forecasts might prompt traders to reassess their positions. Monitoring these factors closely will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds for the Amazonas election outcome.
