TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 1:00 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which candidate—Lula or Flavio Bolsonaro—will receive the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election specifically from the state of Amapá. Currently, Polymarket gives Lula a 100.0% probability of winning the most votes, while Flavio Bolsonaro is at 0.1%. The market resolves based on official results reported by the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE), with a final resolution date of October 26, 2026, to account for the reporting of official election results following the October 25, 2026 election date. Keep a close watch on the vote count as reported by the TSE immediately following the close of polls on October 25, 2026, to see if the outcome remains as predicted.
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than traditional polling averages. While polls suggest a close race, this market indicates a stronger likelihood of one candidate prevailing. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate information from a diverse set of participants, incorporating not just public opinion but also expert analysis, on-the-ground insights, and real-time event developments. This can lead to discrepancies between market prices and poll numbers, offering a potentially more nuanced view of the election’s trajectory.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand – if more traders believe a candidate will win, they’ll buy shares, driving up the price and increasing the implied probability. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will fall. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate who receives the most votes in Amapá during the second round of the Brazil presidential election will be declared the winner of this market. Official results released by the relevant electoral authorities will serve as the basis for determining the outcome. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the election unfolds and results are tallied.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major campaign events, such as televised debates or large rallies, could shift voter sentiment and impact trading activity. Unexpected endorsements from influential figures or the release of new polling data could also trigger price movements. Furthermore, any significant economic or political developments in Brazil, or specifically within Amapá, could affect perceptions of each candidate’s chances and lead to changes in the implied probabilities reflected in this market.
