TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:57 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Alagoas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Alagoas. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than recent polling averages for the Brazilian presidential election in Alagoas. While polls suggest a close race, the market indicates a stronger preference for one candidate. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot of opinion at a given time, while this market represents a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on informed traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, sample biases in polls, or the market incorporating information not reflected in public polling data.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the market participants. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic forecast of the election results in Alagoas. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in the market’s assessment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results released by the Brazilian electoral authorities regarding which candidate received the most votes in Alagoas during the second round of the presidential election. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements, unexpected policy announcements, or impactful debate performances, could shift voter sentiment. Additionally, any breaking news related to the candidates—including controversies or revelations—could influence trading activity. Economic data releases or shifts in the political landscape nationally could also impact the perceived probabilities, leading to price adjustments in this market regarding the Brazilian presidential election in Alagoas.
