TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 12:56 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Acre, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Acre. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Acre. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Acre, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Acre. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Acre. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data for the Brazilian presidential election in Acre. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of voter intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on. Any significant discrepancies between the two could indicate a lack of confidence in the polls, or that market participants have access to information not reflected in public surveys. It's important to note that both methods have limitations and can evolve as the election nears.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased for a particular candidate, the higher the price rises, indicating increased confidence in their chances of winning. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market constantly adjusts to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results from the Brazilian electoral authority are verifiable from credible public reporting. The candidate with the highest number of votes in Acre state, as officially declared, will determine the winning outcome in this market. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process, based on the official count and avoiding reliance on subjective interpretations or unverified sources. Traders should monitor official announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before resolution. Major events include televised debates between candidates, the release of new polling data, and any significant endorsements from influential political figures. Unexpected economic developments or scandals involving either candidate could also shift market sentiment. Additionally, any changes in the political landscape of Acre state, or national-level events impacting voter preferences, could lead to substantial movement in the odds for this market. Monitoring news and analysis related to the election is crucial for understanding potential catalysts.
