TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 6:52 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the first round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the implied probability from this market suggests a different outlook than some recent polling averages. While polls indicate a wide range of potential turnout scenarios, the market is currently pricing in a higher probability of turnout falling within a specific range. It’s important to remember that polls capture a snapshot in time and are subject to methodological limitations, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies between prediction market odds and polling data can often signal areas of disagreement or uncertainty.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final turnout percentage will be sourced from official election authorities in Brazil and compared to the ranges defined within this market. The resolution will determine which shares pay out 1 USDC each, based on which turnout range accurately reflects the official results of the first round of the 2026 presidential election. Traders should monitor official announcements from Brazilian election officials as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major political developments, such as significant shifts in candidate platforms or unexpected endorsements, could alter voter sentiment and impact turnout expectations. Economic news, particularly regarding Brazil’s economic performance, could also play a role. Additionally, any changes to election laws or procedures, or even significant media coverage focusing on voter participation, could move the market. Finally, unexpected events like natural disasters or political crises could also impact turnout and therefore the price action in this market.
