TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:35 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Renan Santos receiving at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives a 98.0% probability to this outcome. This prediction market combines data from multiple sources, and will resolve based on the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Renan Santos in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Traders should watch the official announcement of the election results following the first round of voting, scheduled for October 2026, to see if Santos surpasses the 2% threshold.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses a series of 'exceeds X%' markets, while Polymarket uses 'less than X%' and 'between X and Y%' markets, creating a structural difference in how outcomes are assessed.Hero tip: Consider the inverse relationship between Kalshi's 'exceeds' markets and Polymarket's 'less than' markets. If you believe Santos will get less than 2%, you'd buy the Polymarket 'less than 2%' market and *avoid* Kalshi markets above 2%.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets asking if Santos will win less than 2% or between specific ranges (2-4%, 4-6%, 6-8%), and 8% or more. Resolution is based on the official vote count from the Brazilian government (TSE). "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
- Kalshi: Kalshi provides multiple binary markets, each resolving to 'Yes' if Santos's vote share is at or above a specified percentage (1%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 9%, 12%). Resolution is based on the certified percentage of the popular vote.
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Renan Santos in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Kalshi
The event determines if Renan Santos achieves a specified minimum percentage of valid votes in Brazil's 2026 presidential election first round. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (1% to 12%), with resolution dependent on certified results from Brazil's Tribunal Superior Eleitoral. The percentage is calculated from valid votes only, excluding invalid, spoiled, blank, or rejected ballots. If official recounts occur before contract expiration, the most recent certified percentage applies. All markets share identical calculation methodology and data sources, differing only in their threshold requirements.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance, leading to differing interpretations of available information. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Additionally, the specific market structures and available contract types on each platform can influence trading behavior and, consequently, the displayed odds. These factors contribute to the nuanced price differences observed across venues.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, unexpected campaign gaffes, or shifts in economic conditions could all alter perceptions of Renan Santos’s chances. Significant polling releases, particularly those showing substantial changes in support, would likely trigger price movements. Furthermore, any developments related to other key candidates in the race could indirectly influence this market. Unexpected news events or controversies surrounding Santos could also lead to substantial shifts in trading activity and, therefore, the odds.