TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:27 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the percentage of the popular vote that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will receive in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The markets rely on official vote counts from the Brazilian government to determine the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers a series of markets with different lower bounds for Lula's vote share, while Polymarket focuses on ranges and comparisons (less than, between, or greater than/equal to) a specific percentage.Hero tip: Carefully compare the thresholds and conditions of each market before trading. Kalshi's markets are conditional on exceeding a lower bound, while Polymarket's markets have different comparative conditions.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets asking whether Lula will win less than 35%, between 35-38%, 38-41%, 41-44%, or 44% or more of the valid vote. Key Quote: "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers multiple markets, each resolving to 'Yes' if Lula's vote share falls within a specific range (e.g., 37% to 100%). Key Quote: "If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 37% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on the certified percentage of valid votes received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, as officially reported by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral. The percentage is calculated by dividing his votes by total valid votes cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If a recount occurs before market expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution. Each market has a specific threshold range (e.g., 37% to 100%, 40% to 100%, etc.), and resolves to 'Yes' only if the certified percentage falls within that market's defined range, inclusive of both endpoints.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential biases. Prediction markets can sometimes be more accurate than polls, especially closer to the event, as they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. However, it’s important to remember that both prediction markets and polls have limitations and should be considered alongside other sources of information when assessing the Brazilian presidential election.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant policy announcements, debates, or endorsements, could shift voter sentiment and influence trading activity. Unexpected economic news, shifts in political alliances, or even major scandals involving candidates could also move the market. Polling data releases, while not always perfectly correlated, will likely be closely watched by traders. Any event that alters perceptions of a candidate’s chances of success in the Brazilian presidential election could lead to substantial price fluctuations.