TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:48 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different outlook than traditional polling averages for the Brazilian presidential election. While polls provide a snapshot of voter intentions at a specific point in time, this market reflects a continuously updated assessment based on actual money at stake. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, methodology, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including qualitative factors and potential strategic considerations. It’s important to consider both sources of information when evaluating the race.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe Flávio Bolsonaro will achieve a specific vote share, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing system that reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, and is influenced by new information and changing perceptions of the race.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the official vote share received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election, as reported by the relevant electoral authorities. The resolution will be based on publicly available and independently verifiable data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. The final result will be determined by the official count.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the campaign, such as significant endorsements, unexpected gaffes, or shifts in economic conditions, could all impact trader sentiment. Polling data releases, while already considered, can still cause price adjustments if they deviate substantially from market expectations. Furthermore, any news related to potential electoral interference or challenges to the integrity of the election could introduce volatility. Unexpected political alliances or scandals involving key candidates could also influence trading activity in this market.
