TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 12:46 AM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Flávio Bolsonaro receiving at least 35% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives a 99.0% probability to this outcome. Resolution will be based on official results from the Brazilian government, specifically whether the certified percentage of votes received falls between 33% and 100%, inclusive, as defined by PredictionHero. Keep an eye on the official announcement of candidate lists by the Brazilian electoral authority, expected well before the election window closes on October 6, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers multiple markets based on ranges, while Polymarket focuses on specific thresholds and a 'lowest bracket' tiebreaker.Hero tip: Be mindful of the tiebreaker on Polymarket and the granularity of Kalshi's markets when forming your predictions.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on whether Bolsonaro wins less than 30%, between 30-33%, 33-36%, 36-39%, or at least 39%. If the candidate receives no valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket.
- Kalshi: Offers multiple markets, each resolving 'Yes' if Bolsonaro receives a vote share within a specified range (e.g., 21%-100%).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Kalshi
Markets resolve based on the certified percentage of valid votes Flávio Bolsonaro receives in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The percentage is calculated from certified results issued by the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, using valid votes only. If a recount occurs, the most recent certified percentage before contract expiration determines the outcome. Thresholds range from 21% to 100%, with each threshold representing a distinct market outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *wager* on, potentially revealing more about true beliefs and incorporating information not captured in polls. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming polling data, particularly when considering the spread between potential outcomes. It’s important to remember that both offer valuable insights, but through different methodologies, and this market provides a unique data point for analysis.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, shifts in economic conditions within Brazil, and the release of new polling data are all potential catalysts. Unexpected scandals or controversies involving Flávio Bolsonaro, or his main opponents, could also lead to substantial price movements. Changes in voter sentiment, reflected in social media trends or public statements, could also influence trading activity. Any developments that alter perceptions of his likelihood of success could cause the odds in this market to shift.