TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 5:50 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the vote share Augusto Cury will receive in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Markets exist on both Kalshi and Polymarket, focusing on different thresholds and framing of Cury's performance.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms diverge in how they define successful outcomes for Cury, using different thresholds and framing (exceeding vs. falling within a range).Hero tip: Consider the inverse relationship between Kalshi's 'greater than or equal to' markets and Polymarket's 'less than' market. Hedging across platforms can mitigate risk.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket presents markets asking if Cury will win less than 1% or between specific ranges (1-2%, 2-4%, etc.). Resolves based on the official vote count, with a tiebreaker favoring the higher range. If the election isn't resolved by June 30, 2027, it resolves to the lowest range.
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers a series of markets, each resolving to 'Yes' if Cury's vote share is at or above a specific threshold (1%, 2%, 3%, etc.). The resolution is based on the certified percentage of the popular vote.
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 1% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 3% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 4% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 6% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 8% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 10% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 15% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Augusto Cury in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what individuals are willing to *wager* on, potentially revealing more about true beliefs and perceived probabilities. While polls may show a range of potential outcomes, the price action in this market distills those possibilities into a single, quantifiable probability. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like polling methodology, sample bias, and the inherent incentive for accurate forecasting within a prediction market.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in polling data, significant endorsements of other candidates, or unexpected political developments could all influence trader sentiment. Any news related to Cury's campaign, such as changes in strategy or fundraising efforts, would also be closely watched. Furthermore, broader economic or geopolitical events affecting Brazil could indirectly impact the election and, consequently, the price action in this market. Increased media coverage or debates featuring Cury could also lead to notable movements.