TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 4:42 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the fourth-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each candidate finishing in fourth place. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that if many traders believe a candidate is likely to succeed, the price of shares representing that candidate will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease, reflecting the changing expectations of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the first round of the Brazilian presidential election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on which candidate officially receives the fourth-highest number of votes in that initial round. The resolution will be determined by the official vote count released by the relevant electoral authority, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 4, 2026. Major developments in the campaigns of the leading candidates, such as significant policy announcements or unexpected endorsements, could shift voter sentiment and therefore market prices. Any controversies or scandals involving the candidates could also have a substantial impact. Additionally, changes in economic conditions or major political events in Brazil could influence the perceived likelihood of each candidate achieving fourth place in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election. Polling data releases will also likely cause fluctuations.
