TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 1:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market reflects trader sentiment about who will lead the vote in Santa Catarina. While prediction odds can diverge from traditional polling averages, they often incorporate late-breaking news and betting patterns that surveys miss. Traders may price in higher uncertainty or recent momentum shifts not yet captured in public polls. The gap between market implied probabilities and poll averages can signal where betting interest is concentrated, sometimes foreshadowing shifts in voter intent.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders actively set the odds through buying and selling contracts tied to the election outcome. The current price reflects the collective expectation of who will finish first in Santa Catarina, adjusted for recent events and betting volume. As Oct 5, 2026 approaches, volatility may rise, pushing prices toward the final result based on real voter tallies. Market depth and liquidity influence how smoothly prices adjust to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the first-round election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The leader in Santa Catarina’s official vote count determines who wins this market, and the process follows standard electoral certification timelines.
Between now and Oct 5, 2026, several signals could shift this market. Major polling updates specific to Santa Catarina, candidate debates, or regional scandals often cause rapid price swings. Economic announcements, endorsements from local influencers, or shifts in campaign momentum can also reshape trader expectations. Natural disasters or security incidents affecting voter access may create short-term volatility. As voting approaches, any credible forecast or turnout projection may push odds toward the eventual leader.
