TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 9:38 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts which political party will hold the most seats in Brazil's Chamber of Deputies following the 2026 election. The Chamber of Deputies is the lower house of Brazil's National Congress, and controlling the most seats grants significant legislative power. Resolution is based on official election results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve based on the party holding the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies after the 2026 election, with a tiebreaker based on alphabetical order of party abbreviations.Primary resolution logic: Superior Electoral Court (TSE) (www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the party with the most seats.
- In case of a tie, the party with the alphabetically first abbreviation wins.
- Resolution is based on official election results.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Election Delay: If official results are not available by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the Polymarket markets will resolve to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify a resolution deadline, relying on official results.
- Federations: Resolution considers electoral federations as single entities for seat count purposes.
Polymarket
The next federal Chamber of Deputies election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or electoral federation that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (Câmara dos Deputados) as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election. In the event of a tie between multiple entities for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the entity whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or electoral federation in the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies as a result of the next Brazilian Chamber of Deputies election, not by any coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies (https://www.camara.leg.br/).
Kalshi
For the Chamber of Deputies election, the party or formal pre-election coalition with the most seats wins, regardless of whether they form the government. Only coalitions formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count; post-election governing arrangements do not. If two parties tie in seats, the one entering government resolves to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote resolves to Yes and all others to No. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction prevails. The market remains open until a rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until the re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market-making activity can all contribute to price discrepancies. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform may attract traders with different information or perspectives on the Brazil Chamber of Deputies election. The volume traded on each platform also plays a role; a larger volume generally indicates greater confidence in the price. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the value of aggregating information across multiple venues.