TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

BP Monthly Credit Card Spend in September

Volume:
$25,980

Above 111.5

 - Kalshi

Above 111.5 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:13 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 111.5

View
100%
98%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,443
N/A
N/A
$4,048
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 103.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,451
N/A
N/A
$2,017
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 114

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,440
N/A
N/A
$3,413
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 105.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,289
N/A
N/A
$1,531
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 107.5

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,154
N/A
N/A
$674
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,100
N/A
N/A
$1,899
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 101

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,027
N/A
N/A
$1,185
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 109.5

View
100%
90%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,745
N/A
N/A
$555
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 117

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$332
N/A
N/A
$332
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets track potential growth in U.S. based consumer credit and debit card spending for a specific month in 2026, compared to the same month in the previous year. The outcomes depend on whether reported spending exceeds various growth thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets share a common framework: they resolve based on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for the BP Monthly Credit Card Spend index for September 2026. The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. credit and debit card transactions, with 100 representing equal spending to the prior year, values above 100 indicating growth, and values below 100 indicating decline. Each market has a specific threshold; if the reported index exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No. Post-settlement corrections or revisions to the reported data do not alter the outcome. The underlying data comes from Carbon Arc's aggregated transaction panel, updated daily, and Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with Carbon Arc.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the BP credit card spend market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this prediction, alongside a 24-hour volume of $11,409. It provides a live view of market sentiment and trading activity, helping users monitor how participants price the likelihood of different outcomes for the BP credit card spend market.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on officially released data, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process that matches the market’s underlying event specifications.

Key signals that could shift this market include major economic announcements, changes in oil prices, shifts in consumer confidence surveys, and any unexpected disruptions to BP’s credit card processing network. Additionally, broader macroeconomic trends or policy changes affecting consumer spending may also influence trader sentiment and price movements leading up to resolution.