TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 7:35 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina Parliamentary Election, specifically focusing on which political party will secure the most seats in the House of Representatives. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, and resolution will be based on official results from the Central Election Commission.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi markets resolve if *any* of a specified list of parties wins, while Polymarket markets resolve only if a *specific* party wins the most seats.Hero tip: Kalshi markets are effectively 'OR' bets across listed parties, while Polymarket markets are 'AND' bets (a party must both be listed *and* win the most seats).Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves YES if the specified party wins the *most* seats in the House of Representatives. "Will SDA win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?" Ties broken by vote total then alphabetical order.
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if *any* of the listed parties (Naša Stranka, SDA, SNSD, SDP BiH, HDZ BiH, NiP, NES, DF, SDS, PDP) wins the election. "If Naša Stranka wins the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Representatives election, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
Kalshi
The party or coalition with the most seats wins. If two parties tie in seats, the one entering government resolves to Yes and all others to No. If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote resolves to Yes and all others to No. Only coalitions formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count; post-election governing arrangements do not. Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as shifts in party alliances, endorsements from influential figures, or unexpected candidate withdrawals, could all cause price fluctuations. Significant economic news or geopolitical events affecting Bosnia and Herzegovina could also influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, while not always directly correlated with market prices, can still contribute to shifts in expectations. Finally, any controversies or allegations related to the election process itself could introduce uncertainty and volatility into this market.