TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 5:31 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This prediction group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Bosnian general election, specifically which political party will secure the third-highest number of seats in the House of Representatives. The markets allow for speculation on various parties' potential performance, with resolution based on official election results.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes an 'Other' option for parties not explicitly listed, while Kalshi only considers the 25 listed parties.Hero tip: Consider the possibility of a smaller party unexpectedly achieving third place when evaluating Polymarket's 'Other' option. Kalshi's markets are limited to the listed parties.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to the party with the third most seats, or 'Other' if results are not definitively known by July 31, 2027. Allows for a broader range of outcomes.
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if one of the 25 listed parties finishes in third place according to certified results. Excludes any party not explicitly listed.
Polymarket
General elections to elect the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (https://www.izbori.ba/).
Kalshi
The official rules specify that each market resolves to 'Yes' only if the named party or coalition achieves third place in the certified results of the 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina House of Representatives election. Rankings are determined by the final seat allocation order from the Central Election Commission, with the total of 42 seats divided between the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (28 seats) and Republika Srpska (14 seats), including constituency and compensatory mandates. Each certified party or joint list is counted as a single entity, with seats combined across both entities; separate lists are not merged for coalition purposes. In cases of exact ties for third place, resolution occurs proportionally, with $1 divided by the number of tied entities and rounded down. Any unlisted party or coalition achieving third place results in all named markets resolving to 'No'. Parties or candidates withdrawing or being disqualified after the filing deadline but remaining on the ballot are ranked based on their certified results. The rules also account for potential election cancellations, postponements, or unavailable certified results, though specific procedures for these scenarios are governed by additional overarching regulations.
Frequently asked questions
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Different risk appetites and information access among traders on each platform can also lead to varying assessments of the probabilities. Furthermore, the specific market designs – contract terms, fees, and available trading strategies – can influence price discovery. These differences are normal and contribute to a more robust overall view of the potential outcome of the Bosnia election.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, unexpected candidate gaffes, shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling data, and any controversies surrounding the election process could all cause price fluctuations. Changes in the political landscape, such as the formation of new coalitions or the withdrawal of candidates, would also be key catalysts. Any news impacting voter turnout or perceptions of electoral fairness could also move this market as traders adjust their predictions.