TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 5PM ET
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BNB/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Two distinct resolution methodologies: Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI 60-second average (pre-5 PM snapshot) across 40 price-level thresholds; Polymarket uses Binance BNB/USDT 1-hour candle open vs. close (starting at 5 PM). Data source, measurement window, and granularity differ fundamentally.Hero Tip:
Kalshi markets resolve based on a pre-5 PM price snapshot from a professional benchmark index; Polymarket resolves based on a post-5 PM 1-hour candle from Binance spot. These measure different time periods and sources. If you trade both, treat them as separate bets and do not assume correlation or hedging benefit.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 40 independent binary markets, each resolving Yes if CF Benchmarks BNBUSD_RTI 60-second simple average (measured in the 60 seconds before 5 PM EDT on April 29, 2026) exceeds a specific threshold. Thresholds range from $519.99 to $714.99 in $5 increments. Quote: 'If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BNBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT is above [threshold] at 5 PM EDT on Apr 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Single binary market resolving to Up if BNB/USDT close price >= open price for the 1-hour candle beginning at 5 PM EDT on April 29, 2026. Data source is Binance BNB/USDT spot pair. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BNB/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.'
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