TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.2b

24H VOL:

$81,517,990

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,351,258,445

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,140,494,451

319,225

Markets across

31,623

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,653

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This group of markets resolves based on whether Bitcoin's closing price on Binance at noon ET on August 25 exceeds specified thresholds. The markets are binary outcomes (Yes/No) determined by a single data point from a specific exchange and time window.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets use identical resolution logic based on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET on August 25.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 PM ET

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves to "Yes" if Binance BTC/USDT close price > specified threshold at 12:00 PM ET on August 25
  • Market resolves to "No" if price is equal to or below the threshold
  • All markets share identical threshold definitions and timing

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Threshold Equality: If price equals the threshold, market resolves as "No" - this is explicit in Polymarket description and implied in Opinion's threshold-based logic
  • Data Availability: If Binance experiences outage during resolution window, market remains pending until data becomes available per standard crypto market practices
Timing: Resolution occurs immediately after the 12:00 PM ET candle closes on August 25Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bitcoin price market aggregates predictions from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms view Bitcoin’s value around key dates. It displays consensus odds, volume of $152,621, and 24-hour volume of $85,821, letting users see where the market stands on whether Bitcoin will hit a specific level. This unified view helps spot trends and compare expectations from different prediction markets in real time.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader sentiment, often diverging from short-term spot price movements due to longer-term outlooks and market positioning. In this market, odds incorporate macro factors, technical analysis, and upcoming events that could influence Bitcoin’s value. While spot prices may fluctuate daily, prediction markets price in probabilities over the event window, sometimes showing stronger conviction or skepticism about future levels than current exchange rates.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. At that point, the market settles based on whether Bitcoin’s price meets the target level as defined in the contract. The process relies on widely accepted data sources to ensure transparency and fairness for all participants.

Several signals could shift this market before it closes: major economic announcements, regulatory updates, technological developments in Bitcoin’s network, or unexpected macroeconomic shocks. Institutional trades, large exchange inflows or outflows, and sentiment shifts driven by influential figures can also create volatility. Traders often watch these cues closely, as each has the potential to alter probability assessments in the run-up to Aug 25, 2026.