TOTAL VOLUME:

$115.5b

24H VOL:

$110,004,045

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,328,568,758

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,189,390,228

309,549

Markets across

30,215

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,079

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Bitcoin above ___ on August 23?
Crypto
polymarket
opinion

Bitcoin above ___ on August 23?

Aug 16, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Aug 23, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$829,143
Volume 24h:
$382,522
45%
Liquidity:
$0
100%
Open interest:
$418,100N/A

74,000

 - Polymarket

74,000 - Polymarket

100%

+54%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

0%20%40%60%80%

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Vol.

$266.3k

·

Resolves Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 12:14 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

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Outcome
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Chance %
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24h
7d
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Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether the price of Bitcoin will be above $74,000 on August 23. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 100.0%, drawn from Polymarket and Opinion, with resolution based on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on August 23. Watch the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on August 23 for resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Opinion markets use identical resolution criteria based on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on August 23.Primary resolution logic: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on August 23

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at 12:00 ET on August 23 is higher than the specified threshold
  • The market resolves to 'No' if the close price is equal to or below the specified threshold

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Candle Close Time: The specific 1-minute candle closing at exactly 12:00 ET (noon) in the Eastern Time zone is used for resolution, not any other time or exchange
  • Price Precision: Price precision is determined by Binance's native reporting of the BTC/USDT close price, typically to 2 decimal places
Timing: Resolution occurs after the Binance 1-minute candle closes at 12:00 ET on August 23, 2024Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT at 12:00 PM ET (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price on the specified side of the price specified in the title — for an "above" market, a "Close" higher than that price; for a "below" market, a "Close" lower than that price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Frequently asked questions

The Bitcoin price market dashboard aggregates data from multiple platforms to show how traders price the likelihood of Bitcoin hitting a specific level by Aug 23, 2026. It displays current probabilities, volume of $731,062 and 24-hour volume of $342,524, plus cross-platform consensus. This real-time view lets users compare expectations across venues and monitor shifts in market sentiment as the resolution date approaches.

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader sentiment, often diverging from spot price expectations due to differences in time horizons and risk assessments. While spot prices show current exchange values, this market incorporates future expectations, volatility forecasts, and macro events, potentially leading to higher or lower implied probabilities than immediate market prices.

This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by whether Bitcoin’s price exceeds the specified threshold at the exact time, providing a clear, objective conclusion for all participants.

Macroeconomic news, major exchange updates, and shifts in crypto regulatory sentiment could sway this market. Central bank announcements, geopolitical developments, and large institutional trades often create short-term volatility. Technical breakouts or breakdowns on Bitcoin charts may also influence trader sentiment. As Aug 23, 2026 nears, any significant news flow—positive or negative—could cause rapid re-pricing of odds across platforms.